Kalshi's June Trading Volume Reaches $9.4 Billion All-Time High, World Cup Drives Surge in Prediction Market Transactions

BlockBeats News, July 5th, driven by the 2026 World Cup event, the U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi saw its June trading volume rise to around $9.4 billion, a nearly 77% increase from around $5.3 billion in May, reaching a record high. Meanwhile, Polymarket International's trading volume increased from around $3.5 billion to around $4.3 billion during the same period.

The data shows that the World Cup has become a major catalyst driving the growth of the prediction market trading. With this edition of the World Cup being the first to expand to 48 teams, the increase in the number of matches and knockout scenarios has boosted trading activity in single-match event contracts. The Round of 16 match between Canada and Morocco saw trading volumes exceeding $48 million and $26.8 million on Kalshi and Polymarket, respectively.

However, the rapid growth in trading volume has further intensified regulatory controversies. Multiple states in the U.S. continue to argue that sports event contracts should be subject to gambling regulation rather than being regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the derivatives market. At the same time, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently warned that some event contracts may have fallen within the scope of existing binary options regulations.

Analysts believe that the World Cup has validated the prediction market's ability to attract liquidity during major events. However, whether sports event prediction contracts should be subject to financial derivative regulation or gambling regulation in the future remains a core regulatory issue facing the industry.