Bank of America: US Stock Funds See Largest Weekly Outflow Since March, "Sell Signal" Persists for Sixth Week
BlockBeats News, July 3rd. The latest weekly report from Bank of America showed that as of the week ending July 1st, U.S. stock funds saw a weekly outflow of $17.2 billion, marking the largest weekly net redemption since March 2026 and the second consecutive week of net outflows. At the same time, the BofA Bull/Bear Indicator rose from 9.1 to 9.5, remaining in the "extremely bullish" range. Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at BofA, stated that the "sell signal" triggered on May 20th by this indicator has not yet been lifted. BofA's data indicates that since 2002, this indicator has triggered a "sell signal" 17 times, with the global stock market averaging a 2% to 3% decline over the following 2 to 3 months, with an accuracy rate of about 60%, and a historical maximum drawdown of 15% to 20%.
On the fund flow side, investment-grade bonds attracted $17.2 billion in inflows for the week, marking the 13th consecutive week of net inflows; high-yield bonds saw an inflow of $3.4 billion, the largest weekly inflow since May 2025. Tech funds received $14.3 billion in inflows for the week, with the year-to-date cumulative inflow expected to reach a historical record of $152 billion. In the meantime, Japanese stock funds attracted $1.9 billion for the week, the largest weekly inflow in nearly 7 weeks.
Amid U.S. stock outflows, the semiconductor sector has come under significant pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 11% over the past two trading days. JPMorgan strategists pointed out that the extreme outperformance of U.S. semiconductor stocks compared to AI mega-cap cloud computing companies has created an unsustainable valuation gap, and they expect this gap to eventually narrow. Commodities and gold remain under pressure, with gold seeing an outflow of $3 billion for the week, marking the 7th consecutive week of outflows; cryptocurrency outflows reached $2 billion, the largest weekly outflow since November 2025.
