Analysis: Weak US Jobs Data Eases Rate Hike Concerns, Bitcoin Spot ETF Buying Returns, and Other Positive Factors Drive Bitcoin Rebound

BlockBeats News, July 3rd, U.S. job data came in weaker than expected, easing concerns about the Fed tightening further and boosting demand for risk assets. Kyle Rodda, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, said the data undermined the narrative of a re-acceleration in the U.S. labor market. The rate market still prices in a hike later this year, but the implied probability has fallen from around 85% before the data to 77%, with the probability of a hike this month dropping from about 30% to around 18%.

On the fund flow front, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $224 million on Thursday, ending a 10-day outflow streak, indicating that dip buyers are returning after around $2.4 billion in redemptions earlier. QCP Capital analysts noted that options market pressure has also eased with the spot rebound, as the one-month at-the-money implied volatility dropped from the 40% mid-range to the 30% high-end, and the term structure has reverted to a positive spread after an inversion during the sell-off.

However, QCP believes that the job data is not a completely dovish signal. Despite the lower-than-expected job additions, wage growth is accelerating, the unemployment rate is falling, and consumer spending remains strong, suggesting more of a labor supply contraction rather than a demand cooling, providing room for the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance. QCP stated that the market is shifting rate hike expectations from September to December, but cross-asset performance does not yet support a true policy pivot, with further attention needed on July 14th CPI, July 15th PPI, and the end-of-month FOMC meeting.