Polymarket Puts Probability of “Ronaldo Crying at World Cup” at 73%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Will Ronaldo cry at the World Cup?" being "Yes" is 73%.

This market will resolve as "Yes" if Cristiano Ronaldo is clearly seen shedding tears in a photo or video during the World Cup Portugal match. The crying must take place on the field or in the bench area, and can happen before, during, or after the match; tears in the locker room, deep in the tunnel, or in other non-field/bench areas do not count.

The Guardian reported today that Portugal eliminated Croatia 2-1 in the Round of 32, with VAR controversy, 4 disallowed goals, Ronaldo scoring a penalty and his first goal in a World Cup knockout stage, followed by being substituted. There were no on-screen tears from Ronaldo throughout the match.

However, the high probability of "Yes" is due to Ronaldo's strong emotional precedent. After Portugal was knocked out by Morocco in the 2022 World Cup, footage of Ronaldo leaving the field in tears was widely circulated; in the 2024 Euro Cup against Slovenia, he was visibly in tears after missing a penalty in extra time. ESPN reported at the time that tears were in his eyes before and after the extra time break, with teammates consoling him; he later explained that the emotion came from the pressure of high standards, family, and live audience fans.
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