World Gold Council: Under Benchmark Scenario, Gold Price Could Trade Around $4,100 in the Coming Year

BlockBeats News, July 1st: Today, the World Gold Council released the "2026 Mid-Year Global Gold Market Outlook," looking ahead to the second half of the year. The valuation framework suggests that gold will continue to serve as a barometer of the global macroeconomic environment, with three main possible scenarios.

From the current price level, the gold price is broadly in line with market consensus: the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank are all expected to tighten their policies; and the U.S. second-quarter inflation rate is forecasted to peak at around 3.9%.

If the above environment remains stable, the gold price may trade around $4,100 per ounce during the year, with a fluctuation range of approximately ±5%. In case of geopolitical or economic deterioration, or a shift in rate expectations, gold is poised to resume its upward trend. However, only a strong enough signal of global economic slowdown could drive the price of gold above. On the downside, a stronger U.S. dollar, a larger-than-expected rate hike, and a rebound in market risk appetite are the main obstacles for the gold price. If the price remains below $4,000 per ounce, it may trigger further selling pressure.

Nevertheless, based on historical performance, if the gold price falls more than 10% from the current level, it may trigger "buying on dips" demand from long-term investors in multiple regions.