Citi Upgrades Murata Rating, Bets on AI Servers to Boost Passive Component Profit

BlockBeats News, June 30th. Citigroup upgraded Murata Manufacturing Co. from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised the target price from 3,900 yen to 15,000 yen, citing the increasing demand for AI servers reshaping the growth trajectory of the high-end MLCC market.

In a research report released on June 29th, Citigroup stated that AI servers require a much higher usage and specification of multi-layer ceramic capacitors compared to traditional servers. A regular server board uses approximately 2,000 MLCCs, while AI server GPU boards could reach close to 11,000 by 2026. With the rise in AI accelerator power consumption and current fluctuations, servers need more high-capacitance, high-reliability components, driving Murata's product portfolio and average selling price up.

Citigroup believes that Murata is one of the primary beneficiaries of this shift. The bank estimates that Murata holds about a 50% share of the high-capacitance MLCC market for AI servers, leading Samsung Electro-Mechanics and TDK. This advantage comes from yield rates, material technology, and high-end mass production capabilities. In addition to its regular annual capacity expansion, Murata has added about 20% additional capacity expansion. Citigroup stated that if demand continues to rise, further expansion may become necessary.

Earnings forecasts have also been significantly revised upwards. Citigroup expects Murata's operating profit for FY3/27 to reach 440 billion yen, rising to 630 billion yen for FY3/28, and further increasing to 800 billion yen for FY3/29. The bank stated that profit growth mainly comes from the increase in AI server MLCC shipments and price improvements from the higher-spec products.

However, Citigroup did not assume that Murata would raise prices across the board for general MLCCs. The report stated that the company is more likely to improve profit margins through the AI server product mix rather than actively driving industry-wide price increases. However, if the supply and demand imbalance for high-end MLCCs continues or competitors raise prices first, Murata may still have additional upside potential in the future.

This report indicates that AI adoption is expanding from GPUs and HBMs to a more nuanced hardware supply chain. For Murata, the market's focus is no longer just on the smartphone and automotive cycles but on whether AI servers can become a new core driver of profit growth.