Opinion Summary: Bitcoin May Be in a Cyclical Bottoming Phase, Focused on Key Inflection Point Window from July to October
BlockBeats News, June 29th, as Bitcoin continues to pull back, the market's discussion on the bottom of this cycle continues to heat up. A comprehensive analysis from various parties suggests that Bitcoin may be gradually approaching the cycle bottom, but in the short term, we still need to wait for the market to undergo further liquidation and bottoming.
According to Grayscale's latest research report, since hitting a high point of around $125,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has retraced more than 50%, falling below $60,000. This is still considered a cyclical adjustment within a long-term bull market rather than a trend reversal. The report points out that this round of decline is mainly influenced by factors such as the expected shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance to hawkish, the uncertain prospects of the "CLARITY Act" legislation, leverage pressure from Strategy, and concerns about quantum computing security. Grayscale believes that if the legislation progresses smoothly, corporate deleveraging pressures ease, and the Fed postpones rate hikes, Bitcoin may have already approached the bottom of this cycle; conversely, if regulatory progress is hindered, digital asset companies continue to deleverage and face additional risks from rate hikes, there is still room for further downside in the market. However, compared to historical cycles, the institutional funding foundation in this cycle is more solid, and it is expected that the retracement level is unlikely to replicate the previous bear market's drop of around 80%. The long-term outlook for the development of public blockchains and digital assets remains optimistic.
Market participants' judgment on the bottom range is also gradually becoming more concentrated. Yi Lihua, the founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), stated that this round of decline has entered the third wave of retracement since October 2025. If following historical volatility patterns, July to August may be the last and most valuable window for positioning in this bear market. He believes that the trend of the U.S. stock market, changes in Strategy's balance sheet, and the Fed's attitude towards inflation and interest rates are still the core variables determining the market direction. At the same time, one should also be cautious about any black swan events that may occur at the end of the bear market. Based on historical decline calculations, if retracing 60% to 66% from the high point of $126,000, the corresponding prices would be around $51,000 to $43,000, and this range is still seen as a potential area of extreme pressure.
Cryptocurrency analyst Murphy, based on the "Post-Halving MVRV Z-Score" analysis, believes that the overall volatility of this cycle has significantly converged, with both the high and low points weaker than in historical bull and bear cycles. Currently, the corresponding MVRV range is about 1.12 to 1.30, indicating that Bitcoin's fair operating range is around $59,000 to $70,000. The probability of a short-term drop below $50,000 is relatively limited, and it is more likely to maintain a range-bound or weak rebound pattern until July 23rd. Murphy further points out that the truly noteworthy bottoming phase may begin in late July to late August, with September to October potentially seeing more important directional choices. He believes that Bitcoin below $60,000 already has a higher long-term allocation value, but at the current stage, one should still exercise patience and wait for the market to complete the bottoming process.
