Galaxy Research has revised the probability of the "CLARITY Act" being passed in 2026 down to 50%.

BlockBeats News, June 29th. According to the latest Galaxy Research report, due to the ongoing compression of the Senate legislative schedule, the probability of the United States "CLARITY Act" (Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act) being legislated by 2026 has been lowered from 60% three weeks ago to 50%. The report points out that although the bill was approved by the Senate Banking Committee in May and included in the Senate legislative schedule, a unified text between the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee has not yet been finalized, and the timing of the full Senate vote has not been determined.

Galaxy Research stated that if the bill aims to complete the deliberation before the August recess of Congress, the Senate Majority Leader must schedule a vote no later than early July; otherwise, the legislative process is likely to be delayed until September, influenced by the mid-term election political factors. Meanwhile, the 2027 Fiscal Year "National Defense Authorization Act" and other priority agendas continue to compete for Senate voting time.

In addition, there are still differences on some key aspects of the bill, including the conflict of interest provisions and the developer protection provisions in the "Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act" (BRCA), which still need to garner more bipartisan support. If a unified bill text can be released in the coming weeks, major disputes resolved, and a July vote formally scheduled, the probability of the bill's passage is expected to rise back to over 60%; however, if there is no substantial progress by mid-July, the probability of passage may further decline.