BIS: AI Long-Term Future Might Take Four Paths, Underinvestment Could Be a Key Growth Constraint

BlockBeats News, June 29th, according to the latest research published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), AI is expected to break through the pattern of traditional technological revolutions that only improve labor productivity, transform the long-term economic growth path by enhancing knowledge creation capabilities.

The research suggests that AI may evolve into four scenarios in the future, including the status quo, limited productivity growth, demand constraints, and transformative AI. If AI can continue to enhance its own capabilities, both the economic growth rate and the natural interest rate are expected to be significantly higher than historical levels.

However, AI development may not accelerate infinitely. As automation continues to replace labor, the share of labor income may decrease, and consumer demand may struggle to match the expanding production capacity. If businesses believe that future market demand is insufficient, they may reduce ongoing investment in AI innovation and automation, causing technological progress to be constrained by demand rather than the technology itself.

BIS believes that in this "demand constraint" scenario, insufficient final demand will become the main constraint on long-term economic growth, and the long-term impact of AI will still depend on multiple factors such as technological breakthroughs, income distribution, and evolving demand.