1 new account bought the "Will Russia occupy Kostyantynivka before June 30th" market

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has placed a $4,900 "No" position on "Will Russia occupy Kostyantynivka by June 30?" with an average purchase probability of 79.4%. The current "Yes" probability is 10.4%.

Per the market rules, settlement for "Yes" does not require full Russian military control of Kostyantynivka but rather the ISW map to designate at least a portion of Kostyantynivka's railway station on Pravoberezhna Street as under Russian military control or confirmed advance area; mere Russian presence, gray zones, or scattered infantry near the station do not qualify.

During the day on the 25th, Russian forces carried out 11 attacks in the Kostyantynivka direction, mainly focusing on Pleshchiivka, Illinivka, Rusyn Yar, and the approaches to Kostyantynivka, most of which were repelled by Ukrainian forces, with only one engagement still ongoing by day's end. Reports do not indicate the establishment of a new firm Russian control point in the city center, along the rail line, or at the railway station. While Russian forces maintained a high tempo of attacks, the number of attacks did not translate into alterations significant enough to change the market's territorial outcome.

On the 25th, Major General Viktor Nikoliuk, Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Joint Forces Operation East, stated that the resources needed to defend Kostyantynivka remain sufficient, with the city neither encircled nor in a semi-encircled state. The city is experiencing localized engagements initiated by small Russian infantry groups rather than a large-scale urban assault forming a stable front line; Ukrainian forces locate these groups and conduct strikes to eliminate them upon discovery. This assertion indicates that Russian forces have not yet severed the defender's organization, defense, and supply systems, and a stable occupation of the Kostyantynivka railway station within less than five days will require a breakthrough far beyond the current pace.

Account:
0x96b230daf07da88585379f3b9473839a31961bff.
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