Goldman Sachs: South Korea's Full-Year Exports Expected to Exceed $1 Trillion; Multiple Institutions Assess Global Inflation Path Divergence Amid Middle East Shock

BlockBeats News, June 24th, Goldman Sachs' latest report pointed out that the AI capital expenditure boom has exerted a stronger and longer-than-expected driving force on the Korean chip cycle. The AI-driven significant trade surplus will continue until the end of the year, with South Korea's full-year exports expected to exceed $1 trillion, and the current account surplus as a percentage of GDP will rise to 15%.

On the U.S. front, the latest study by the Dallas Fed shows that this spring, the surge in oil prices to over $120 per barrel reduced the U.S. economic output by around 0.3 percentage points. However, this impact is much lower than that of a similar oil crisis in the 1980s, reflecting a significantly enhanced resilience of the U.S. economy to oil price shocks.

Regarding the Eurozone, analysts at ING pointed out that although the June PMI data still shows that business activity is in the contraction zone, the easing of inflation pressures due to the cooling of energy prices is encouraging. The growth slowdown coupled with fading inflation concerns will dampen the European Central Bank's strong willingness to raise interest rates significantly.

As for Australia, Westpac Bank maintains its forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates in August and warns that the "second-round effects" of the Middle East supply shock are spreading. The cost increase in fuel, transportation, and chemical products has begun to spill over into more areas beyond energy. Wage cost pressures in the second half of 2026 may further boost inflation, and the withdrawal of policy support measures will continue to pose inflation risks beyond the August monetary policy meeting.