Bitunix Analyst:High Rates Are Replacing War as the New Pricing Center for Markets

June 23—A clear shift is emerging across global markets: geopolitical risk still exists, but pricing power over asset valuations is steadily returning to monetary policy and the liquidity environment. US-Iran technical talks have formally launched in Switzerland, with the US simultaneously issuing a 60-day interim permit allowing Iran to resume oil sales, and both sides making progress on a Hormuz Strait transit mechanism and partial asset unfreezing. Concerns over energy supply disruption continue to ease, and Qatar has confirmed that its gas plant explosion was merely an industrial accident with no impact on LNG exports—further reinforcing supply recovery expectations.

But the market's focus has gradually shifted to the Fed. The shock from Warsh's first meeting as Chair continues to ripple outward—Bank of America's latest report even forecasts up to three rate hikes this year, totaling 75 basis points. At the same time, internal Fed support for cutting back forward guidance is gaining more officials. The market is starting to accept a new environment of lower policy transparency and higher volatility.

This repricing is already showing up across global assets. The dollar remains strong; the yen, after approaching historical lows again, has seen sharp volatility, and an emergency communication between the Japanese and US Treasury chiefs underscores that FX risk is climbing. On the other side, high-valuation growth assets are coming under pressure. SpaceX has fallen for a third straight session, with its market cap significantly off its highs—reflecting that as markets begin recalculating the cost of capital, forward-growth narratives no longer command the valuation premium they once did.

For crypto, this signals a shift in the source of risk itself. Over the past few weeks, markets have primarily traded war, energy, and shipping risk; now, as the Middle East situation moves into a negotiation framework, the market is refocusing on dollar liquidity, Treasury yields, and the Fed's policy direction. If hike expectations continue to warm, capital will lean more toward the dollar and high-yield fixed-income assets—and for crypto to attract incremental flows again, markets will need to see a new turning point in the liquidity environment.

In the near term, easing Middle East risk should help suppress energy prices. But what truly drives the next phase of risk asset performance is no longer whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens—it is whether markets begin to believe the Fed is re-entering a hiking cycle. This also means that the core of market volatility over the coming weeks will gradually shift from geopolitics toward inflation data, employment data, and Fed policy signals themselves.