Analysis: After U.S. midterm elections, the probability of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin rising within 12 months reaches 100%.

BlockBeats news, October 6th, according to XWIN Japan statistics, since 1950, in the 12 months following the 19 U.S. midterm elections, the S&P 500 index has risen every time, with an average gain of 15.4%. The third year of a presidential term has historically also been the strongest performing year.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin rose by 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the 12 months following the midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, respectively. However, in the first month after the 2018 election, Bitcoin fell by 45.5%. It should be noted that the crypto market currently has only three observation samples, which is not enough to constitute a reliable pattern.

Analysts believe that after the midterm elections are settled, attention should be paid to whether yields stabilize, whether institutional buying continues, and whether regulatory progress is made. Political tailwinds may help Bitcoin, but sustained gains still require favorable market conditions.