Bitunix Analyst:From Forward Guidance to Policy Fog—The Warsh Era Officially Triggers aGlobal Volatility Revaluation

June 22—The global market's core focus has gradually shifted from the Middle East conflict itself toward monetary policy and a liquidity revaluation. Although US-Iran talks in Switzerland have made phased progress—with both sides agreeing to establish a high-level political oversight committee and a 60-day roadmap toward a final agreement—the Strait of Hormuz has yet to fully normalize, and clear gaps remain between Iran and the US over the Lebanon issue and oil sanctions exemptions. Geopolitical risk has not been fully resolved.

The energy market is, however, beginning to reflect supply recovery expectations. Libyan crude production has climbed to its highest level since 2013, Iraq is planning a gradual return to pre-conflict capacity, and Qatar has begun preparations to restart LNG exports. Markets are reassessing the impact of Middle East supply-chain recovery on global energy prices and the inflation path—the war-driven supply shock is gradually being replaced by a supply-return narrative.

That said, the true driver of market pricing is now the Fed's policy pivot. Rate markets have fully priced a 25 basis-point hike in September; Goldman Sachs has cut its gold target and now expects no rate cuts this year. New Chair Kevin Warsh continues to dilute forward guidance and the dot plot—significantly raising market uncertainty around the policy path. Whether through continually climbing Treasury yields, a persistently strong dollar index, or large-scale unwinding of global carry trades, capital is visibly rotating back into the dollar system.

Meanwhile, following the BOJ's rate hike, the Japanese government has stated its support for policy normalization—but markets are now watching the room for further hikes and the FX intervention risk. Japan's Ministry of Finance publicly warned that it will take action against FX speculation, also reflecting that major global central banks are gradually entering a tighter policy environment.

For crypto, the biggest variable is no longer the Middle East—it is the liquidity pressure created by continuously rising global cost of capital. While falling energy risk helps ease inflation concerns, a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields, and warming Fed hike expectations will continue to weigh on risk-asset valuations. As markets begin to trade "higher rates for longer"—or even "another hike"—the key question for crypto has shifted from geopolitical events to whether incremental new liquidity sources are emerging.