Analysis: BTC Touches Key Support Level, Volatility Decreases but Defensive Positions Still Prevail

BlockBeats News, June 19th, glassnode reported that Bitcoin (BTC) fell back to a key support area after retesting the February low. Options market data shows that despite the price nearing a crucial level, the implied volatility has significantly dropped from recent highs, with the 1-week implied volatility decreasing from around 60% to 35%. The overall volatility curve has shifted down in sync, indicating a significant cooling in the market's pricing of future uncertainty. At the same time, the 25Δ skew has retreated from extreme levels seen during the June sell-off period, and short-term downside protection demand has normalized to some extent, showing a weakening in panic hedging sentiment.

However, structural defensive positions still dominate. Data shows that short-term options still lean towards downside protection, with bearish options trading volume accounting for about 28% in the past week, significantly higher than the long position buy ratio (24.1%). Meanwhile, the 1-month implied volatility has dropped below actual volatility, leading to a situation where the market experiences an "implied volatility underestimating actual volatility" scenario. A significant short Gamma concentration zone (approximately $1.8 billion in size) is present around $62,000, which could accelerate volatility amplification if the price further plummets, while a certain long Gamma buffer zone exists near $60,000. Overall, despite the cooling of volatility, the market remains in a predominantly defensive position structure.