The Market Anticipates Powell's Debut, Interest Rate Decision, and Press Conference as Key Focus

BlockBeats News, June 17th. The first interest rate decision under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on June 18th, followed by a press conference at 2:30 a.m. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%.

Over the past few days, the U.S. stock market has remained strong led by the technology and cyclical sectors. The Dow hit a new high, the overall resilience of the S&P 500 remains, and although the Nasdaq saw fluctuations as AI, chip, and software stocks took profits, there was no systemic risk signal in the market. Goldman Sachs Trading Desk stated that the semiconductor and AI infrastructure sectors have generally remained flat this week after recent volatility, with investors still inclined to "buy on dips."

AI trading is still the most crowded and controversial theme in the market. The continued rise of SpaceX post-listing has strengthened the market's imagination of the new generation AI infrastructure. Storage, optical modules, CPOs, power equipment, and data center supply chains continue to benefit from the expected expansion in cloud capex. However, some investors are beginning to caution that AI bottleneck trading has seen significant gains, and further fundamental substantiation is needed.

Geopolitically, the market is also digesting somewhat positive signals. Optimistic expectations surrounding U.S.-Iran contacts and the prospect of passage through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed down the oil risk premium. Trump has also continued to urge a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, easing risk-off trades. Oil prices pulled back from previous highs, alleviating investors' concerns about a resurgence of inflation.

Crypto assets have also benefited from the restoration of risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both seen rebounds recently, with the market viewing this as an extension of improved liquidity expectations and revived speculative sentiment. Ethereum has shown resilience after previous pressure, while Bitcoin is still seen as one of the core assets to observe macro risk appetite.

In this context, Warsh's first appearance has become a key short-term focus. The market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but investors are more concerned about the statement's wording and the tone of the press conference. If Warsh plays down rate cut hints and emphasizes inflation risks, it could suppress overvalued tech and AI trades. If he sends a dovish signal, it could provide new reasons for the recent rebound in risk assets.