1 clever money buy-in on "Will the US-Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by June 30?"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a smart money user has invested $74.7 thousand in the outcome "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by June 30th?" with an average buy probability of 54.1%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 55.5%.

Address 0xb2a36233 has invested $74.7 thousand, with the top relevant category in this market being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $1.4 million. The user has executed 13 settled trades in this category with a 100% win rate, including 5 trades with a buying price below $0.8 and a selling price above $0.95.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sherif stated on June 12th that the US and Iran have reached a "final, mutually agreed-upon text," and Pakistan is facilitating the next steps between the two parties. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also mentioned that the "Islamabad Understanding Memorandum" has never been closer to finalization, indicating progress towards a preliminary agreement, including ending regional wars, reopening the Hormuz Strait, and subsequently engaging in nuclear technical negotiations.

US senior officials informed the media that while they have not reached the finish line yet, they are very close, with confidence levels of around 80% to 85% for signing the agreement in the coming days. According to the US, the potential agreement includes reopening the Hormuz Strait, lifting relevant sanctions, addressing Iran's high-enriched uranium, and entering a 60-day technical negotiation phase post-signing; economic benefits will not be immediately released upon signing but will depend on Iran's compliance.

On the other hand, public information currently remains at the stage of "close to text," "awaiting signature," and "could be completed in the next few days," with no formal joint announcement from the US and Iran regarding the establishment of a permanent peace agreement. Additionally, there are still discrepancies in the public narratives of the agreement's content: Trump has just rejected the version of the agreement leaked by Iranian media, stating that the terms are unrelated to the written agreed-upon content; while Iran emphasizes that the agreement has not been signed yet, and the content is subject to change.

Another variable is Israel. Israel is not a party to the US-Iran negotiations, and Netanyahu has stated that Israel and the US are fully aligned on "Iran not being able to possess nuclear weapons." However, Israeli Defense Minister Gantz has also emphasized that Israel may still act independently and will not withdraw from its relevant areas in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and the northern West Bank refugee camps.

Note: Based on the user's historical trading behavior, it is inferred that the user is not betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.

Account:
0xb2a3623364c33561d8312e1edb79eb941c798510.
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