A certain Smart Money purchased $136,000 to bet on "The US and Iran Will Reach a Permanent Peace Agreement by the end of June 15th."

According to Predict.fun monitoring, one Satoshi's Wallet address has invested $136.1k in the question "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before June 15th?" choosing "Yes," with an average buy-in probability of 11.3%. The current probability for "Yes" stands at 11.3%.

wan123 invested $136k, with the most relevant category in this market being Politics, with a net profit of $308k. Out of 219 settled transactions in this category, the success rate is 90/219 (41%), with a total of 62 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051-$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $2.7k, making this investment 50.1 times that median.

In the past 24 hours, there has been a significant turnaround in the US-Iran negotiation narrative. Trump initially threatened Iran with further attacks if the agreement did not progress, even mentioning seizing oil infrastructure such as the Haqqani Island. However, he later reversed his stance both in the White House and on social media, stating that the planned new strike against Iran had been called off and suggesting that the US and Iran were nearing a "great reconciliation." He claimed that senior Iranian officials had approved the plan, the agreement was "mostly completed," and attributed Iran's concessions to recent military pressures.

He also mentioned that after the agreement is signed, the US will lift the blockade related to the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to plummet. On the Israeli side, they emphasized that they were not part of the agreement. Still, Netanyahu's office stated that he had discussed this memorandum of understanding with Trump and thanked the US for requiring the final agreement to include removing enriched materials, dismantling enrichment infrastructure, limiting missile production, and ending support for regional proxies.

Iran's statements are much more cautious. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Baqai stated that while there had been significant progress in the negotiations, Iran had not made a final decision and would not compromise on "red line" issues such as nuclear restrictions and missile capabilities. Fars News, linked to the IRGC, also claimed that Iran had not agreed to any final document; Iran International cited Fars to say that as the US had accepted Iran's proposed text, there was a higher likelihood of Iran approving the memorandum, but a final response had not yet been given.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not merely betting on whether the event will actually occur but may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior after opening a position at a certain point in time.

Account:
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b

Total Investment: $136.1k
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