Goldman Sachs Lowers 2027 Oil Price Forecast: Supply Expansion to Constrain Medium-Term Upside, but Geopolitical Risks Offer $140 Upside Potential

BlockBeats News, June 12, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Brent crude oil price expectation to $80 per barrel in its latest report, citing continued global oil supply expansion and weak demand-side performance as the main reasons.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that oil-producing countries such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and the UAE have significantly increased production. Meanwhile, China's energy structural transformation is accelerating, reshaping the global oil demand growth trajectory.

Despite the long-term expectation downgrade, the bank still maintains a relatively bullish outlook on medium-term oil prices, with the average Brent crude oil price in the fourth quarter of 2026 expected to be around $90 per barrel.

Regarding the supply shock, Goldman Sachs believes that recent shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have had a lower-than-expected impact. Although the global supply gap has widened at one point, it has been partially offset by weak demand and structural oversupply. The bank expects Gulf countries' crude oil exports to gradually return to normal by the end of August and has revised its previous recovery timeline.

However, Goldman Sachs also emphasizes that geopolitical risks could still trigger extreme volatility. In an unfavorable scenario, if exports remain blocked, the Brent oil price could surpass $110 by the end of 2026.

In an extreme scenario, such as a year-long blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs believes that oil prices could even rise to $140 per barrel. On the downside, if supply rapidly recovers and demand weakens further, oil prices could retreat to around $70 and further drop to $60 in 2027.