Tonight, ahead of the CPI data release, the Federal Reserve's probability of a rate hike this year is 68.8%.

BlockBeats News, June 10th, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a Fed rate hike this year is 68.8% as of tonight's U.S. May CPI data release. The probabilities are as follows: 43.1% for a cumulative 25 basis point hike, 21.2% for a cumulative 50 basis points hike, 4.2% for a cumulative 75 basis points hike, and 0.3% for a cumulative 100 basis points hike.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the May CPI data tonight at 20:30. The market generally expects a 0.5% month-over-month increase in May CPI, with a year-over-year growth rate of 4.2%. If this expectation is met, it would be the first time U.S. CPI has reached 4% since May 2023, reaching the highest level since April 2023. For core CPI, the market expects a 0.3% month-over-month increase in May, with a year-over-year growth rate of 2.9%.

For the Fed, the upcoming CPI release and subsequently the PPI data will be important references before the June policy meeting. Bond traders have recently increased their bets on a rate hike, with some views suggesting the Fed could act as early as September. If May CPI significantly exceeds expectations, especially if the range of increase expands further, it may strengthen the Fed's policy rationale for a rate hike this year.