Deutsche Bank Backs SpaceX Ahead of First Earnings Report: Space and Starlink Business Can Justify Current Valuation, AI Business' "Zero Pricing" Seen as Overly Punitive

BlockBeats News, August 4th, SpaceX is about to release its first post-listing financial report after-hours today. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, its stock price has almost halved from the 52-week high of $201.80 to $115. Deutsche Bank maintained a "Buy" rating on SPCX with a target price of $255 on the eve of the financial report. Through a classification and sum-of-the-parts valuation stress test, they pointed out that the space business (with a reference to Blue Origin's recent $130 billion external valuation, SpaceX's launch frequency and Starship progress should be assigned a premium of 3 to 5 times, corresponding to $390 billion to $650 billion) and the Starlink business (corresponding to a range of $748 billion to $956 billion based on the 2027 expected EV/EBITDA valuation range) together total around $1.35 trillion, which is roughly in line with the current market cap of about $1.4 trillion — this means the market is pricing its AI business close to zero. Deutsche Bank explicitly stated that this is overly punitive and not in line with the significant potential of its AI business.

JPMorgan Chase also previously gave SPCX an "Overweight" rating with a target price of $225, expecting SpaceX's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 91% from 2025 to 2030, expanding from $19 billion to $470 billion.

Deutsche Bank expects SpaceX's second-quarter revenue to be $6.671 billion, a 64% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.1 billion. The AI business is the biggest incremental driver, with revenue expected to double to $1.876 billion quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by the new cloud service agreement signed with Anthropic; Starlink broadband users are expected to reach 12.5 million by the end of the quarter, with revenue growing by over 50% to nearly $4 billion.

The current major tactical pressure comes from unlocking sell-offs, with the first batch of approximately 9.12 billion shares set to be unlocked starting on August 6th, followed by a continuous unlocking of about 300 million shares every 15 to 20 days, and another approximately 1.3 billion shares to be released during the third-quarter financial report. Deutsche Bank believes that the stock price is expected to stabilize after the unlocking period, and a positive catalyst could be the landing of major government or sovereign AI cooperation agreements.

SpaceX's financial report focuses on four key areas: the follow-up launch pace of Starship and whether the second-stage tower recovery can be achieved, the selection of the U.S. ground mobile network roadmap, AI business variables (Grok iteration, Cursor integration, reports of Google using SpaceX's computing power only as a transitional bridge, progress in U.S. government cooperation negotiations), and Musk's cautious statement on merger matters during the Tesla earnings call.