Bitunix Analyst:Against a"Higher-for-Longer"Backdrop,AI Capex Frenzy and Geopolitics Enter the Validation Phase
June 9—No recession, no cooling inflation—but capital demand continues to expand. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct fire for the first time since April, while the Houthis have announced a full ban on Israeli vessels transiting the Red Sea—clear signs that Middle East risk has not truly been resolved. Although Trump has publicly pressed both sides to halt military escalation, and US-Iran talks are reportedly aiming for an agreement by end-June, US forces intercepted a tanker bound for Iran while Israel maintained a hardline stance on Hezbollah. The implication: energy supply pressure and a geopolitical risk premium will remain in the short term.
At the same time, the market's central focus has shifted decisively to monetary policy. After the strong NFP print, multiple Wall Street institutions have begun revising their prior rate-cut expectations. From Goldman Sachs withdrawing its in-year cut forecast, to Schwab arguing that the Fed's threshold for hiking is dropping, to the bond market already pricing future hike risk, capital is repricing "higher rates for longer" and even "limited additional hikes." This week's US CPI will be the watershed—should energy gains continue feeding into core inflation, market bets on a hawkish Fed pivot could escalate further.
The AI sector, meanwhile, has entered a fresh capital arms race. OpenAI has formally filed for an IPO, Anthropic is simultaneously preparing to go public, and SpaceX has launched its IPO roadshow—while Google and NVIDIA continue to expand compute investment, and Google has signaled a large TPU procurement from Intel. The global AI infrastructure arms race continues to accelerate. But markets are now beginning to ask a consequential question: with rates staying elevated, bond yields continuing to climb, and a wave of IPOs and secondary offerings draining market liquidity, will capital markets retain enough liquidity to support a valuation structure of this magnitude?
From a capital-structure perspective, the biggest risk today is no longer inflation or war alone—it is that global capital demand is starting to exceed liquidity supply. AI companies need financing, governments need to issue debt, energy shocks keep pushing inflation higher, and yet the Fed cannot deliver the easing markets have been hoping for. If the past two years' market narrative was "growth driven by AI expectations," the question over the coming months becomes whether those growth stories can withstand the pressure of a meaningfully higher cost of capital.
For crypto, BTC has already broken prior range support and completed a sweep of downside liquidity—markets are now testing the critical demand zone near $62,000. Structurally, price has returned close to the key support band formed in February, reflecting that risk appetite is being suppressed by the macro backdrop. The key watch: if this week's CPI exceeds expectations, markets will further reinforce Fed hike pricing, with risk assets facing another wave of liquidity pressure. Conversely, if CPI undershoots, recently repriced tech and crypto assets could enjoy short-term breathing room. Until the new macro pricing regime is established, volatility is likely to remain elevated.
