Is the AI Bull Market's Real Challenger the Fed? Wall Street Warns Rate Hike Will Be Market's Biggest Test

BlockBeats News, June 8th, as strong non-farm payroll data boosted the market's expectations for a Fed rate hike, Wall Street began to warn that what could truly end the current AI-driven bull market is not deteriorating fundamentals, but rather the ongoing rise in funding costs.

On Friday, the US added 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding market expectations, driving up expectations of a Fed rate hike later this year. As a result, the Nasdaq plummeted over 4% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 10%, marking the largest single-day drop since 2020, and the total market value of US stocks evaporated by about $2 trillion.

At the same time, multiple risk indicators continue to rise. Goldman Sachs projects that AI capital spending by Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet will reach $5.3 trillion between 2025 and 2030; Citigroup's Global Bear Market Warning System has seen 10 indicators flashing red, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

The market is also concerned that as companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic make successive impacts on the capital markets, the AI concept valuation bubble is further expanding. Driven by the "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO) sentiment, the performance of some tech stocks has clearly deviated from their fundamentals.

Reuters columnist Jamie McGeever pointed out that historical experience shows that economic expansions and stock market bull runs usually do not naturally come to an end but are often terminated by Fed tightening. Against a backdrop of high inflation, robust employment, and still accommodative financial conditions, the rise in funding costs could become the biggest risk factor facing the AI frenzy.