Analysis: Bitcoin ETF outflows, Strategy Liquidation, and Deteriorating Macroeconomic Environment were factors that led to a 14% plunge in Bitcoin price this week

BlockBeats News, June 4th. The Bitcoin price drop this week has expanded to about 14%, with the price dropping to around $62,400 on Thursday. This decline was driven by multiple factors, including Strategy's rare sale of BTC, continuous outflows from the US Bitcoin spot ETF, and a deteriorating macro environment. Strategy sold 32 BTC at the end of May to pay preferred stock dividends. Despite the small scale, QCP Group stated that the transaction held greater symbolic significance as Strategy has long been seen by the market as a structural buyer, and its "never sell" narrative has a supportive effect on institutional investor sentiment.

On the funding side, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen outflows for three consecutive weeks, with total redemptions reaching $4.21 billion, marking the largest institutional de-risking cycle since 2026. Glassnode pointed out that the ETF's average purchase price is around $83,000, and the recent Bitcoin rebound was rejected in this area, putting the average ETF investor back into an unrealized loss position. On-chain data also indicates a damaged market structure. The short-term holder's cost basis has dropped to $76,400, falling below the true market average for the first time since January 2022, signaling a market structure closer to the later stages of a bear market.

However, Bitwise's European research director, Andre Dragosch, stated that their internal crypto sentiment index has triggered a contrarian buy signal, with sentiment at its most pessimistic level since surrendering on February 5th. He believes that the Bitcoin 200-week moving average around $61,000 and the realized price around $56,000 will be key support levels to determine if the pullback is nearing its end. The options market remains cautious. QCP Group mentioned that the signal given by the volatility market is not "buying on the dip" but rather "buying insurance for a downturn." Glassnode believes that until spot demand recovers and ETF investors return to a profitable state, if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the path of least resistance in the short term remains tilted towards consolidation or further downside.