3 Smart Money Invests $200,000 to Bet on MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin Before July

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, three Smart Money participants have placed bets on the outcome of "Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?" with a total investment of $204.0k in the "Yes" outcome. The average buy-in probability is 66.9%, and the current probability for "Yes" is 75.3%.

Parz1vaI has invested $23.1k, focusing on the MicroStrategy related market segment, with a net profit of $15.3k. Out of 81 settled trades in this segment, the success rate is 67/81 (83%), with 8 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $2.3k, making this investment 10.0 times the median.
Dropper has invested $110k, also in the MicroStrategy related segment, with a net profit of $87.1k. Out of 63 settled trades in this segment, the success rate is 45/63 (71%), with 10 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $3.5k, making this investment 31.5 times the median.
0xa6d9b55a has invested $71.2k, similarly in the MicroStrategy related segment, with a net profit of $59.1k. Out of 44 settled trades in this segment, the success rate is 37/44 (84%), with only 1 trade having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $27.3k.

In an Exhibit 99.1 submitted to the SEC on May 26th, Strategy confirmed that following the $1.5 billion 2029 Zero Coupon Convertible Senior Notes repurchase, the company holds 843,738 BTC, $6.7 billion principal amount of convertible notes, $15.5 billion nominal value of preferred stock, and an $871 million USD Reserve. The company also stated its intention to replenish the USD Reserve based on market conditions.

CoinNess reported on May 30th that Strategy transferred 411 BTC to Coinbase Prime, marking the first major exchange transfer in two years. However, 3 hours later, Strategy retrieved the 411 BTC from the Coinbase Prime related address, valued at approximately $30.18 million. Coinbase Prime is a leading brokerage platform serving institutional investors, offering trading, custody, and financing services.

Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, it is inferred that the trader is not necessarily forecasting the actual outcome of events but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss strategies at certain points.

Accounts:
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
0xa6d9b55a6a3a54a9d50ca94c64f00af69c50fd2f

Total Investment: $204.0k
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