「Will Trump Sue WSJ Again by May 31st?」 Probability Increases from 48% to 85.5%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the probability of "Will Trump sue WSJ again before May 31?" has increased from 48% to 85.5%.

The market rules require Trump to actually initiate or resubmit a lawsuit against The Wall Street Journal this month; a new lawsuit with new claims or amended claims is counted, but appeals, motions for reconsideration, mere threats of lawsuits, or announcements of intent to sue are not counted.

The U.S. Southern District of Florida Federal Court dismissed on April 13 Trump's defamation lawsuit against The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, News Corp, Rupert Murdoch, and other defendants, but it was a "dismissal without prejudice," allowing Trump to submit an amended complaint. Subsequently, Trump's side requested limited discovery before amending the complaint, seeking evidence of the defendants' "actual malice."

The court's amended order on May 22 denied Trump's request for preliminary discovery, stating that without a valid complaint, the plaintiff cannot use discovery to shore up his case; however, the court agreed to extend the deadline for amending the complaint, explicitly requiring Trump to submit the amended complaint by May 27.

The case itself stems from The Wall Street Journal's reporting on Trump's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Court documents indicate that in 2025, the WSJ reported that Epstein's 50th birthday album contained a explicit letter allegedly bearing Trump's name, which Trump denied the authenticity of and subsequently sued WSJ and related defendants in July 2025.
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