「Iran Internet Access to Be Restored by December 31」 Market Immediately Rejects Proposal

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, the market for the proposal "Iran's internet access will be restored by December 31" was rejected 1 minute after initiation. Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 87%.

The proposal initiator has a proposal success rate of 100.0% (24/24), and the Iran block has a success rate of 100.0% (4/4).
The challenger has a challenge success rate of 50.0% (7/14), and the Iran block has a challenge success rate of 100.0% (2/2).

On May 27, the Associated Press reported that Iranians have begun to regain internet access after months of being offline, but the service remains slow and unstable, with applications like YouTube and Instagram still heavily restricted. The Associated Press cited NetBlocks stating that Iran's connectivity has been restored to about 86% of pre-outage levels. However, Kentik data shows that actual internet traffic is only about 40%, and cybersecurity analyst Amir Rashidi believes it is premature to say the outage has ended.

In a blog post on May 27, Cloudflare mentioned that around 11:00 UTC on May 26, Cloudflare Radar observed a significant increase in traffic and DNS queries from Iran, indicating that a "partial recovery" was underway. However, at the peak on May 26, traffic only reached around 40% of the highest observed in 2026, with the additional traffic predominantly concentrated in Tehran, and IPv6 has had minimal recovery. Cloudflare also cautioned that there was a brief recovery in January followed by a decline, so it remains to be seen if the situation will stabilize in the coming days to the pre-shutdown baseline.

At the political level, the trigger was President Pezeshkian's order to restore international internet access. Reuters reported on May 25 that the Iranian president has ordered the reopening of international internet access. On May 25, Iran International further reported that Revolutionary Guard-linked media questioned whether the president had the authority to unilaterally make this decision, as the decision to restrict the internet came from the Supreme National Security Council, which theoretically should also be the body to reverse it. Al Jazeera/France-Presse also mentioned in a reprinted report that the Iranian administrative court subsequently suspended the president's decision to establish a new network governance body, raising institutional risks on whether the restoration would be sustained.
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