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1 account staked $13,400 in the "Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates in 2026" poll.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, one account has placed a $13.4k bet on "Will the Fed raise interest rates in 2026?" for "Yes," with an average buy-in probability of 34.8%. The current "Yes" probability is 34.5%.

Based on the H.15 rate data released by the Fed on May 21, the 10-year Treasury bond yield reached 4.67% on May 19, and the 30-year yield reached 5.18%, then maintaining levels of 4.57% and 5.11% on May 20. Reuters reported on May 21 that bond yields surged this week, partly due to investors shifting from "rate cuts this year" to considering the risk of "rate hikes this year" after higher-than-expected April inflation. Mortgage-backed securities investors' hedging sales further amplified this round of bond selling.

The FOMC meeting minutes from April 28-29 were released on May 20, stating that most participants believed that if inflation continues to remain above 2%, further policy tightening may become appropriate. The meeting materials also mentioned that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have raised energy prices, inflation remains above the target, and economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace. The minutes also indicated that the market's implied path still assumes largely unchanged rates this year, with the median path in the New York Fed's survey still pointing to two 25-basis-point rate cuts over the next year, but with a delayed timeline.

Account:
0xa309f903dbbd559e87d8d368834b8e41355c4cf2.

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