4 Smart Money Bet on 'Will the US-Iran Diplomatic Talks be Held Before June 30, 2026?' for $18.2 thousand and the answer is 'Yes'

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 intelligent investors have placed a total of $18,200 on the outcome "Will the U.S. and Iran hold diplomatic talks by June 30, 2026?", with an average buy-in probability of 62.3%. The current probability of "Yes" stands at 65.5%.

Address 0xdf6f85ff has invested $2,400, with the most relevant category being Politics, resulting in a net profit of $12,300. Out of 51 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 46/51 (90%), with 7 trades meeting the criteria of buying below $0.8 and selling above $0.95.
Address 0x15f7ddbc has invested $13,200, with the most relevant category being Politics, resulting in a net profit of $7,100. Out of 227 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 150/227 (66%), with 22 trades meeting the specified criteria.
Address 0x8a98109f has invested $1,300, with the most relevant category being Politics, resulting in a net profit of $8,200. Out of 432 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 221/432 (51%), with 26 trades meeting the specified criteria.
Address 0xfbd48c98 has invested $1,400, with the most relevant category being Trump, resulting in a net profit of $8,000. Out of 101 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 65/101 (64%), with 37 trades meeting the specified criteria.

On the 21st, a senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that the U.S. and Iran have not reached an agreement, but the differences between the two sides have narrowed, with the remaining disputes focused on Iran's uranium enrichment activities and Tehran's control arrangements over the Strait of Hormuz.

Al Jazeera reported live today that intermediary negotiations between Tehran and Washington are still ongoing, with both sides exchanging information and draft agreements, aiming to establish a formal framework to end the conflict. Their correspondent in Tehran stated that Pakistani officials are engaged in "intensive mediation efforts." A senior Iranian official believes that an agreement is close to being reached, while another Iranian source warned that it is still too early to judge whether a final agreement can be reached.

Disclaimer: Based on their historical trading behavior, this trader does not necessarily bet on whether the event will actually occur, as they may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss strategies after opening a position at a certain time.

Accounts:
0xdf6f85ff51133209764fe15147d41f8cb808f6ee;
0x15f7ddbc6ffe08722ddeb64d51e58aef7b8ca018;
0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92;
0xfbd48c98f9e698fea5dd3b3f4f09547bcef1194b.