Analysis: BTC Breakout in April Still Holding Above Short-Term Holder Cost, Cycle Bottom Will Eventually Form

BlockBeats News, May 18th. On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the changing relationship between cost basis and price behavior is one of the best perspectives to observe the formation of BTC's bottom structure, with the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis" (1-3m_RP) being the most effective reference. The formation of each bear market bottom structure is always accompanied by a gradual shift in the short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP, yellow line). Examples from previous cycles include:

In 2015-2016, BTC first broke above the short-term holder cost basis and then traded around it for a long period of time;

In 2019-2020, BTC aggressively broke above the short-term holder cost basis and then entered a small bull market.

In 2022-2023, BTC broke above the short-term holder cost basis, retraced twice, found support, and rebounded again.

Since breaking above it on April 15th, the current BTC cycle has been holding above the short-term holder cost basis. Regardless of the future trend, the bottom will eventually form, and BTC will break above the yellow line and inevitably turn upwards. The analyst believes that the key is not to predict specific movements but to prepare in advance and allocate positions rationally. The past trends are only cited as examples and not as investment advice.