Analyst: Macro Pressure Drives Bitcoin Below $79,000, But Outflow From Fixed Income Market May Present Medium-Term Opportunity

BlockBeats News, May 17th – Crypto analyst Marcel Pechman posted an article stating that Bitcoin rapidly fell back after being rejected at $82,000 on Friday, dropping below $79,000. The movement was highly synchronized with the US small-cap stock index, indicating that macro factors were the main driver of this downturn. The Russell 2000 index covers small and medium-sized enterprises with higher capital costs, making them more sensitive to interest rate trends. The high correlation between Bitcoin and this index suggests that the market currently considers Bitcoin a risk asset rather than a safe haven tool. The Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate briefly turned negative on Thursday and remained close to 0% on Friday, with a continued absence of long leverage demand—this indicator has been below the neutral threshold of 6% for several weeks, and multiple attempts to break through $82,000 have failed to boost market confidence.

The pressure from macro factors has been continuously building up: the outcome of the US-China meeting disappointed the market, as apart from committing to accelerate US agricultural exports in the next three years, no specific tariff agreement was reached. Meanwhile, the ongoing Iran war continued to weigh on market sentiment, with Brent crude oil prices jumping from $99 to $106 in the past week, further intensifying inflationary pressures. In addition, the inflation-adjusted Shiller P/E ratio shows that the S&P 500 index is currently only about 5% lower than the peak of the January 2000 Internet bubble, indicating a clear overall market risk aversion.

However, the massive sell-off in the fixed-income market may provide medium-term support for Bitcoin. The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds has risen to its highest level in over 20 years, while the yield on Eurozone 10-year government bonds has also surged to 3.18%, reaching a 15-year high. Analysts believe that in response to the risk of an economic recession, central banks around the world may be forced to inject liquidity, and funds flowing out of fixed income may eventually seek other asset allocations, with Bitcoin expected to benefit from this.