Analyst: ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Has Fallen Over 35% in the Past Year, Could Drop Another 40% If Current Trend Persists

BlockBeats News, May 10th. Analyst Yashu Gola stated that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen over 35% in the past year, and the current trend is echoing a bearish structure from 2024 to 2025, indicating a possible further decline. From a technical perspective, the ETH/BTC pair has been constrained by a downtrend line since 2022, with several unsuccessful breakout attempts, one of which led to a subsequent drop of nearly 70%. In August 2025, the ETH/BTC exchange rate once again faced resistance after testing this trend line, fell below the 20-month EMA support around 0.034, indicating continued bearish dominance. If the weak trend persists, the next key downside target is around 0.0176, representing a potential further 40% decline from the current level, aligning with the 2020 cycle low zone.

On-chain data shows that ETH selling pressure risk is also increasing. CryptoQuant data shows that as of May, Binance's ETH reserves have risen to 3.62 million ETH, accounting for approximately 24.6% of all exchange ETH reserves; meanwhile, BTC reserves on Binance have been steadily decreasing. Typically, an increase in exchange reserves indicates a greater availability of tokens for sale, while a decrease reflects a strengthening trend of long-term holding.

Analysts believe that this further reinforces the fundamental divergence between ETH and BTC: ETH faces higher circulating supply pressure, while BTC benefits from exchange liquidity tightening and ongoing institutional accumulation. Additionally, the narrative surrounding Ethereum as a "super sound money" is weakening, whereas BTC continues to receive corporate buying interest, including from entities like Strategy, and support from Wall Street funds.