Venture Capital Prediction: Anthropic Revenue to Exceed Alphabet's in 2028: "Selling Brainpower Instead of Tools," Benchmarking the $50 Trillion Labor Market

According to Dynamic Beating monitoring, OSS Capital founding partner Joseph Jacks predicts that Anthropic's annual revenue will surpass Google's parent company Alphabet in the mid of 2028. He provided a steep growth curve: reaching $1 trillion by the end of this year, $3.4 trillion next year, and skyrocketing to $8.5 trillion the year after.

Jacks stated that this is already his "conservatively adjusted" forecast. In the first four months of this year, Anthropic's revenue tripled (reaching $300 billion); in the last quarter, while Gemini's usage only grew by 60%, Anthropic surged by 10 times.

He pointed out three solid supports for this explosive growth:

- Extremely difficult for large customers to unsubscribe: the number of enterprises with annual fees exceeding $1 million doubled to 1,000 within two months. Once a business integrates the Agent, the switching cost is extremely high.

- Penetrating major corporations with a single product: Claude Code has become the stepping stone, seizing the opportunity to package the underlying capabilities and penetrate the Fortune 2000.

- Compute power is no longer a bottleneck: leveraging Google's existing capacity, along with recent major deals with Broadcom and SpaceX, the compute power has finally caught up with demand.

In the face of skepticism about "inevitable deceleration once exceeding a trillion in scale," Jacks believes this is viewing new phenomena with old norms. AWS and Meta sell "tools," with a ceiling of the $800 billion software market; Anthropic sells "brainpower," benchmarking the $50 trillion global labor market. With a plate two orders of magnitude larger, the old deceleration law naturally becomes obsolete.

Note: There has been recent controversy over the "300 billion revenue" benchmark of this forecast. OpenAI executives have questioned whether Anthropic used gross revenue in calculating cloud vendor distribution, suggesting the scale may be overestimated; furthermore, comparing a startup's "annualized expectations" to a public company's "financial reporting revenue" involves non-equivalent standards.