2 savvy investors put in a total of $48,800 to bet on the prediction that "Neymar will not participate in the 2026 World Cup."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, two sharp bettors have placed a $48.8k bet on "Will Neymar participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?", with an average buy-in probability of 61.5%. The current probability of "Yes" is 36.5%.

User 8934394839 has invested $31.6k, and the top-related category in this market is World Macro, with a net profit of $654k. Out of their 32 settled trades in this category, they have a win rate of 26/32 (81%), including 15 trades with a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sellout price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551-$0.7), the median of their historical investment amount is $900, making this investment 35.1 times the median.
User nojnn has invested $17.2k, and the top-related category in this market is World Macro, with a net profit of $366k. Out of their 43 settled trades in this category, they have a win rate of 32/43 (74%), including 10 trades with a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sellout price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551-$0.7), the median of their historical investment amount is $17.2k.

The market rules state that for the market to resolve as "Yes," Neymar must actually appear as a player for the Brazilian team during the group stage or later stages of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Just being part of the squad, sitting on the bench, participating in pre-match training or warm-up games is not sufficient; he must have any on-field performance record in an official World Cup match, including regular time, stoppage time, extra time, or penalty shootouts.

In January, Reuters reported that Neymar renewed his contract with Santos until the end of 2026 and continues to harbor hopes of making the World Cup squad; in March, Brazilian coach Carlo Ancelotti did not call him up for the World Cup warm-up squad, stating Neymar was "very good on the ball" but was not yet at 100% physically and needed to continue recovering to full fitness. Mid-April reports indicated that his 2026 season was affected by a knee injury, only making 8 appearances for Santos, contributing 4 goals and 3 assists, and expressing his commitment to his Santos contract.

On April 11, Ancelotti mentioned that Neymar still has around two months to prove he can participate in the World Cup. He stated that Neymar still has a chance to compete for a spot in the 26-man squad, provided he demonstrates a sufficient physical and match fitness level. Recently, negative news surrounding Neymar has primarily stemmed from an incident at the Santos training ground. AP reported on May 6 that Neymar has apologized for a training ground clash with teammate Robinho Jr; Robinho Jr had previously claimed Neymar slapped him during training. AP noted that this incident could further impact Neymar's already unstable World Cup prospects.

Note: Based on their historical trading behavior, the trader is not necessarily betting on whether the event will actually occur, as they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior after opening a position at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a
0x7f9e2d1df78614564a70becc7fa14aa9a6623a0e

Total Investment: $48.8k
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