The US and Iran may be close to reaching an interim agreement, with key US concerns set aside

BlockBeats News, May 8: The United States and Iran may be close to reaching an interim agreement. Key U.S. demands such as Iran pausing its nuclear activities, limiting its missile program, and ending support for so-called "regional proxies" have not been included in the draft agreement. This evolving agreement is centered around a one-page short-term memorandum rather than a comprehensive peace deal, reflecting deep-seated differences between the two sides and indicating that the agreement is only a transitional step.

Officials familiar with the matter stated that Iran is reviewing a draft agreement aimed at halting hostilities but deferring the most contentious issues for future resolution. The agreement will consist of three phases: first, a formal cessation of hostilities; second, addressing the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz; and finally, initiating a 30-day negotiation window to try to reach a broader agreement. The agreement does not address key U.S. demands such as Iran pausing its nuclear activities or reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the agreement does not mention several demands previously made by the U.S. but rejected by Iran, such as restrictions on Iran's missile program and a request for Iran to stop supporting armed groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon (Xinhua News Agency).

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "U.S.-Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement" is 26% by May 15, increases to 42% by May 31, and further rises to 56% by June 30.