3 smart money bets on 'Will Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Normalize by June' each put in $39,700 for a 'Yes' outcome

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 3 whales have invested $39,700 in the question "Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before June?", with an average buying probability of 25.8% and the current "Yes" probability at 21.5%.

mombil has invested $23,900, with the top related category in this market being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $198,000. Out of 677 settled trades in this category, mombil has a win rate of 465/677 (69%), with 223 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151-0.3), the median historical investment amount is $370, making this current investment 64.6 times that median amount.
Car has invested $11,300, with the top related category in this market also being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $545,000. Out of 1902 settled trades in this category, Car has a win rate of 1314/1902 (69%), with 244 trades meeting the buy and sell price criteria. Within a similar cost range ($0.201-0.35), the median historical investment amount is $844, making this current investment 13.3 times that median amount.
duderr has invested $4,500, with the top related category in this market still being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $1.2 million. Out of 561 settled trades in this category, duderr has a win rate of 327/561 (58%), with 98 trades meeting the buy and sell price criteria. Within a similar cost range ($0.151-0.3), the median historical investment amount is $156, making this current investment 28.8 times that median amount.

According to the settlement source PortWatch's latest data, the current 7-day moving average throughput remains below 10, below the market settlement threshold of 60 vessels. Currently, there are still many vessels stranded near the strait, with many ship owners opting to reroute through external ports like Sohar in Oman, Khorfakkan in the UAE, and Fujairah. Trump announced yesterday that the U.S. will assist ships stranded near the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning. Previously, the U.S. had sought international assistance to reopen the strait, with European and Gulf countries focusing on maritime security, oil supply, and preventing further escalation.

A message circulating on social media today claimed that the U.S. had transferred the previously detained Iranian vessel M/V Touska to Pakistan for eventual return to Iran; however, as of now, Reuters, AP, CENTCOM, the Pakistani government, and Iranian officials have not provided clear confirmation. According to Reuters on April 20, Touska, operated by a sanctioned Iranian Islamic Republic Shipping Line, was detained by the U.S. near Chabahar, Iran, in the Gulf of Oman. The U.S. claimed the vessel ignored warnings and violated the U.S. maritime blockade, while Iran denounced it as an illegal seizure and "act of armed piracy."

Note: Based on the trader's historical trading behavior, the trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at certain points after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711;
0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b;
0x8f7a4b414417911e7e9bd738399874792cdbdb40.