Bitcoin Rebounds but Options Market Remains Cautious: May Break Above $84,000 Probability Only 25%

BlockBeats News, May 2. Bitcoin returned above $78,000, with overall market risk appetite rising as the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on Friday. Despite Bitcoin's 15% increase in the past 30 days, the options market priced the probability of Bitcoin rising above $84,000 by the end of May at only 25%. The derivative market remains skeptical of further upside movement, but institutional spot demand remains strong.

For the Bitcoin call option with a strike price of $84,000 expiring on May 29, the price is 0.0136 BTC, approximately $1,063. With 27 days remaining until expiration, this data implies a 25% probability of Bitcoin rising by 8% in May. Bitcoin put options have been trading at a premium for the past month, indicating an increased market demand for downside price protection. The lack of demand for call option leverage positions can be partly explained by Bitcoin's 12% decline year-to-date.

While derivative traders lack confidence in Bitcoin reaching $84,000, the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF is sending a different signal. With net inflows of $1.3 billion in March and another $2 billion in April, totaling assets under management surpassing $100 billion, this metric is often used as a proxy for institutional investor demand. Additionally, several publicly traded companies have significantly increased their Bitcoin reserves in the past 30 days, including Strategy with 56,235 BTC and Metaplanet with 5,075 BTC. The holdings of these companies now exceed the equivalent of Bitcoin's mining output for the next five months, significantly reducing potential selling pressure. The lack of demand for call option derivatives does not negate the probability of BTC price reaching $84,000 or higher by the end of May. As long as institutional buying pressure remains strong, the bullish momentum should continue.