Historical patterns show that Bitcoin often faces a several-month correction after a new chair takes office, with the market watching to see if Powell can break the "curse."

BlockBeats News, May 1st. With Kevin Warsh expected to replace Jerome Powell as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve next month, a historical pattern suggests that after each new Fed Chair takes office, Bitcoin usually experiences a few months of price correction before embarking on a "true bull run." The current market is watching closely to see if this "curse" will be broken or if one final dip is incoming.

Meanwhile, the macro environment is sending mixed signals, with Trump already pressuring for rate cuts. U.S. President Trump stated in an interview that if Warsh does not cut rates in the June's first-rate decision, he would be disappointed. The market generally expects the final meeting under Powell's tenure (this Wednesday) to keep rates unchanged.

James Lavish, Partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, pointed out that the Fed has added about $200 billion in U.S. Treasuries to its balance sheet over the past few months, signaling the formal end of quantitative tightening (QT) and the start of "lite QE," which could act as a potential catalyst for risk assets.

However, Warsh himself has criticized the Fed's decision to maintain low rates during 2021-2022 as a "fatal policy mistake" and has a negative view on balance sheet expansion, showing an internal policy contradiction. Analysts believe that both Bitcoin and the stock market may face short-term volatility, but the shift in liquidity conditions could lay the foundation for future trends.