4 accounts have pooled together a total of $32,700 in a bet on "No" on whether Trump will announce the lifting of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by May 15.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts have placed a total of $32.7k on "Will Trump announce the lifting of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz before May 15th?", with an average buy probability of 75.9%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 21.5%.

Account 0xf9c1190a's most relevant category in this market is Geopolitics, with a net profit of $7500. Out of 8 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 7/8 (88%).
Account 0xc7f52aac's most relevant category in this market is the Middle East, with a net profit of $8100. Out of 8 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 8/8 (100%), with 4 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.801-$0.85), the median of historical investment amounts is $3100.
Account Tenebrus7's most relevant category in this market is Politics, with a net profit of $200k. Out of 2396 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 1825/2396 (76%), with 191 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median of historical investment amounts is $961.

On the 29th, Trump has discussed with oil companies how to mitigate the impact of a "potentially lasting for months" U.S. blockade of Iranian ports; White House officials said Trump is urging Tehran to "be smarter" and sign an agreement. The U.S. government is discussing how to control oil prices and supply chain spillover effects if the blockade lasts for months.

Today, in an interview with Israeli news media, Trump said, "I will not lift the maritime blockade on Iran until an agreement on the nuclear plan is reached," and Trump also mentioned that "in a sense, a maritime blockade is more effective than bombing."

Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, and there is a behavior of taking profit or stop-loss at a certain point after opening the position.

Accounts:
0xf9c1190aa8184bcbe418e6f5321c53b0bfbc39e2
0xc7f52aac35d3dba3fba4d4eb3fc3fc4ddb763f92
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
0x20daa553b13e4834701fe3eb13c2c74d0cce3f28

Total Investment: $32.7k
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