An anonymous whale bet $12,300 on “No” on whether Trump will announce the lifting of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz before May 15th.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, a savvy investor placed a $12.3k bet on "no" regarding "Will Trump announce the lifting of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by May 15, 2026?" with an average buy probability of 69.0%. The current probability for "yes" stands at 30.5%.

Arbguy's most profitable category on this market is Politics, with a net profit of $482k. Out of 306 settled trades in this category, Arbguy has a win rate of 106/306 (35%), with 53 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $8.9k.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump has called for a longer blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Iran's proposal for a temporary arrangement and viewing it as a sign of bad faith negotiation. While Iran has hinted at accepting a temporary deal, reopening the strait in exchange for the U.S. ending its blockade on Iranian ports, it insists on retaining control over some shipping, a point Washington is currently unlikely to accept.

Oil prices have risen for an eighth consecutive day, with Brent climbing to $111.78 per barrel and WTI rising to $100.50 per barrel.

Note: Based on their trading history, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening positions.

Account:
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177

Total Investment: $12.3k
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