Adam Back: Institutional Bitcoin Adoption Moving Slower Than Expected, Accumulation May Take 12-18 Months

BlockBeats News, April 29th, some observers viewed Morgan Stanley's entry into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month as a catalyst to end the current crypto bear market, citing the significant distribution capabilities of the Wall Street giant's $8 trillion wealth advisor network. However, Blockstream CEO and early Bitcoin community contributor Adam Back said "not so fast." Back, recently speculated by The New York Times to be Bitcoin's anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, denied this claim.

Back stated that, from a bullish market signal perspective, the Bitcoin ETF could be the most important recent development, even more important than a crypto-friendly U.S. government, but the process is slower than most people realize. Back said, "I think one thing that people may miscalculate is how institution adoption is very slow. So the ETF has been bought into, but when BlackRock suggests allocating 2% to 4% in their general stock portfolios, fund managers have not done that yet. They will, but slower than people expect." He noted that investors will not rush in overnight, and the accumulation process may take a year, or even 18 months.

Regarding the price, Back mentioned the cyclical nature of Bitcoin's four-year halving cycles. He pointed out that even though some commentators believe the four-year cycle is being disrupted, "people expect it to happen, so they sell to make it happen," and a correction could still occur. This logic will only change once people see a strong market rally, which is currently taking the form of institutional inflows. Back stated that regarding recent discussions about the threat of quantum computing hardware accelerating against Bitcoin's cryptography, institutions are more systematic in their risk management and focus on tail risks, while retail investors see it as a distant future risk.