Arthur Hayes: Expects Bitcoin to Continue Surging, Year-End Price Target Around $125,000

BlockBeats News, April 28th, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated at the Bitcoin 2026 conference that he is more optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. AI will replace a large number of knowledge workers, potentially causing the banking system to suffer hundreds of billions of dollars in credit losses, similar to the subprime mortgage crisis. However, the U.S. is now in a state of war, with the new defense budget set to increase by about 50% to $1.5 trillion. The U.S. government will not cut spending but will instead print a large amount of money.

The enhanced supplementary leverage ratio rule, which took effect on April 1st, allows banks to hold less reserves and more government bonds. S&P Global estimates that this will release approximately $1.3 trillion in additional lending capacity for the banking system, mainly for defense-related companies and AI infrastructure. The money multiplier effect of bank lending is about 3, ultimately creating about $4 trillion in credit.

The nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, Wash, will reduce the Fed's balance sheet but at the same time relax bank regulations, allowing commercial banks to take on government bonds and repurchase agreements. The net liquidity impact is neutral, but the money creation entity will shift from the central bank to commercial banks. The newly created credit scale will exceed the credit scale disrupted by AI, so Bitcoin will continue to rise, with a year-end target price of around $125,000.