1 account invested $14.6 thousand believing that Trump will not announce the lifting of the US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz before May 31.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, an account placed a total of $14.6 thousand on "no" for the question "Will Trump announce the lifting of the U.S. blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?", causing the probability of "no" to increase from 41.0% to 55.4%.

Address 0x612b36dc has a win rate of 71% in the Iran market, with a total profit of $25,000. This trade represents 146.3 times the median of this account's historical investment amount.

According to reports on April 27, the Iranian strategy focuses on first reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing maritime tensions, then moving nuclear negotiations to a later stage. If the U.S. accepts this phased arrangement, Trump could theoretically package the lifting of the blockade as a diplomatic achievement in exchange for the strait's opening.

Furthermore, the blockade itself has a clear double-edged sword effect. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil and gas shipping passage. The longer the blockade lasts, the greater the pressure on Iran, but the higher the spillover costs on global energy prices, shipping insurance, Gulf allies, and U.S. domestic inflation.

Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, it is determined that the trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event, and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain time after opening a position.

Account:
0x612b36dc9ab6d1371103557ec8ad9ed0d2d16fdd.