Analyst: Bitcoin Could Fall to $57,000 in October 2026, Based on 'Historical Average' Pullback

BlockBeats News, April 27th – Bitcoin investor and writer Michael Terpin stated that despite Bitcoin's more than 29% rise since its low point of around $60,000 in February, its price could still drop to $57,000 by October 2026. Terpin said his prediction is based on the "historical average" retracement of about one year from the market cycle top to bottom, with the cycle top occurring in October 2025 when BTC surged to a high point above $126,000.

He mentioned that Bitcoin's price needs to reclaim the $100,000 level for the bull market to resume, which is likely to happen after the price falls below the 200-week moving average (a dynamic and key support level). Terpin added, "Reaching $100,000 this year is certainly possible but not very likely. This would require strong buying from ETFs, along with what Michael Saylor is already doing in Strategy, and no cascade of liquidations due to a sharp decline." In recent days, crypto assets have continued to face pressure from oil price fluctuations, the Iran conflict, liquidity shortages, and unchanged U.S. interest rates. Market analyst Nic Puckrin said, "Wednesday is almost certainly the last FOMC meeting with Powell as Fed Chair. The rate decision is almost certain to be on hold."

Crypto market analyst Matthew Hyland believes that during Bitcoin's uptrend since February, crypto market investors have shown a lack of "excitement or interest," indicating they see it as a limited rebound and are expected to return to a downtrend. He said on Saturday, "In my view, there's a higher probability that BTC takes the next step down before October." Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price could fall back to $73,000 in the short term. Rekt Capital noted that if the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) continues to act as resistance for Bitcoin's price, it could lead the price to retrace to around $65,710.