The Second Round of US-Iran Talks is Really Happening, Probability of Meeting Before the 29th Now Over 50%

BlockBeats News, April 25th. Recently, the US has frequently signaled a "smoke bomb" that it will hold the second round of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, causing the market to be almost immune to it. However, tonight, the US Special Envoy, Wietkoff, and Kushner confirmed their meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Alaraji, causing the US stock market and prediction market data to react simultaneously.

On the US stock market side, according to Bitget market data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes quickly expanded their gains, reaching new highs during the day.

Meanwhile, according to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "US-Iran next round of diplomatic talks" before multiple dates has rapidly increased, unlike the previous muted response to the US's "verbal support" news. Currently, the probability of a meeting before the 26th is 29%, before the 27th is 43%, before the 28th is 48%, and before the 29th is 56%.

Furthermore, several pieces of information indirectly confirm the imminent second round of talks between the US and Iran. Previously, Trump stated that the "good news" about the US engaging in a second round of talks with Iran could appear as early as this Friday local time. Today, the US logistics and security team has already appeared in Islamabad and will participate in peace talks.