During the US-Iran conflict, Polymarket's trading volume surged, with over $100 million in related transactions on the 4th.

BlockBeats News, April 23rd, according to Fortune report, amidst high uncertainty triggered by Trump's Iran war policy and social media remarks, the prediction market platform saw a surge in trading volume. Data from Dune shows that from April 5th (Sunday) to April 8th (one day after Trump announced a ceasefire), the transactions related to the Iran war on Polymarket reached 4.13 billion with a volume exceeding $1 billion.

The report pointed out that on April 8th, nearly 100,000 transactions occurred on Polymarket regarding the event "Is Trump likely to send troops to Iran," making it the highest single-day trading volume for the year at that time. Prior to this, after Trump's post on Truth Social on April 5th demanding Iran to "open the damn strait," the trading volume on Polymarket about the imminent invasion saw a substantial increase; then, on April 7th, after his post hinting "tonight an entire civilization will be wiped out," the event "Will there be a ceasefire" replaced the previous topic as the event with the highest trading volume. Dune referred to Trump as an "unpredictable machine" in the related report and marveled at how his "Twitter governance" style boosted the trading volume.

The prediction markets have been criticized by both parties for allegedly promoting insider trading, but Trump seems very supportive. He has taken a lax regulatory approach and aided in the industry's expansion. It is reported that Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., holds shares in Polymarket and serves as an advisor to Kalshi. Polymarket is currently valued at $9.6 billion, almost ten times higher than its valuation in the latest investment round eight months ago when Trump Jr.'s venture capital fund was involved. The Trump family's Trump Organization is in the process of establishing its own prediction market platform, Truth Predict.

Trump Jr.'s spokesman, Andrew Surabian, responded to the related queries, saying, "Don's involvement as an investor or advisor in any company does not have any connection with the federal government and has no impact or involvement in the government's policies regarding prediction markets." Polymarket has not responded to media requests for comments. Additionally, the probability on Polymarket regarding "Will Trump be impeached before the end of his term" has increased from 13% at the beginning of the year to 66% this Tuesday.