Analysis: Quantum Risk Could Affect $145 Billion in BTC, Significant Selling Pressure But Market Resilient and Not Catastrophic

BlockBeats News, April 23rd. According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin analyst James Check pointed out that recent progress in quantum computing has once again raised concerns about Bitcoin. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically break Bitcoin's elliptic curve signature, exposing the public key of Bitcoin, especially in wallets from the early Satoshi era. However, market data indicates that even in the worst-case scenario, a sell-off would be significant but manageable, rather than catastrophic.

It is estimated that around 1.7 million BTC are held in addresses from the Satoshi era that may be vulnerable to such attacks, amounting to a potential sell pressure of around $145 billion at current prices. However, data shows that during bull markets, long-term holders (investors holding for at least 155 days) typically distribute between 10,000 to 30,000 BTC per day. At this rate, the entire supply from the Satoshi era is equivalent to profit-taking over a period of two to three months. During the recent bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, exceeding the quantum computing's implied "target supply," but the market did not suffer a systemic collapse. Monthly exchange inflows approach 850,000 BTC. The nominal trading volume in the derivatives market every few days is equivalent to the entire Satoshi reserves.

Check stated that sudden and concentrated releases could still cause volatility and potentially trigger a prolonged downturn. However, this scenario assumes economically irrational behavior—any entity with access to such assets has an incentive to gradually distribute them, potentially hedging through derivatives to reduce slippage and maximize returns. He believes the real issue is not mechanical sell pressure but governance—the larger question is freezing Satoshi's coins via BIP-361 and letting the situation evolve naturally.