According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 3 whales have bet $21.4k on the question "Will Trump announce the lifting of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz before April 23, 2026?" The current probability of "Yes" is 16%.
Among these 3 whales, 0x030a01ff has a win rate of 64% in the politics category, with a total profit of $86k; cqs has a win rate of 63% in the politics category, with a total profit of $318k; 0x122cdd9d has a win rate of 70% in the politics category, with a total profit of $74k.
While extending the ceasefire indefinitely, Trump stated that "the blockade on Iranian ports will continue," and the Trump administration will continue to "escalate economic pressure," reflecting market skepticism about the "prospects for peace talks".
Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.
Accounts:
0x030a01fff8762c0747b6dbc589b28ee6cea8acfc
0xdfe3fedc5c7679be42c3d393e99d4b55247b73c4
0x122cdd9db64fd8dc3ebab813218e3effe21f821f
Total Bet: $21.4k
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