Galaxy Analyst Warns "CLARITY Act" Faces Multiple Hurdles, Probability of Passing Before Midterm Elections Around 50%

BlockBeats News, April 21st, Galaxy Digital's Head of Research Alex Thorn warned that the crucial U.S. cryptocurrency bill, the CLARITY Act, has reached a make-or-break moment. If the deliberation is delayed until mid-May, the likelihood of it passing by 2026 will plummet. Currently, the probability of the bill becoming law this year is estimated to be around 50% or even lower. Polymarket data also shows that the probability of its passage has dropped from 82% in February to 47%.

Thorn pointed out that the Senate's schedule is currently filled with matters concerning Iran military authorization, Department of Homeland Security funding, and presidential nominations, leaving little time for the bill. If the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives after the November midterms, legislative progress could stagnate.

Although the bill was passed in the House of Representatives last July with a bipartisan vote of 294-134, negotiations in the Senate are more intricate, facing several key obstacles. Firstly, the stablecoin reward disagreement was the main reason for the deliberation delay from January. Secondly, the provision in the draft stating that non-custodial software developers are not considered "money transmitters" faced opposition from law enforcement agencies. In addition, on the ethics front, some Democrats are pushing to restrict government officials and their family members from profiting from cryptocurrency during their tenure. Finally, concerns about SEC authority and issues such as vacant commission seats have added to the political complexity.

Thorn believes that a full Senate vote in July is "theoretically possible," but it would require extraordinary political will and coordination.