The address invested $19,500, believing that "Trump will announce the end of the military action against Iran today."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, an address invested $19.5k in "Yes" on "Will Trump announce the end of military actions against Iran by April 21st?", and currently the "Yes" probability is 5.5%.

Out of 7 historical transactions from this account, one predicted a successful US-Iran ceasefire and gained nearly $80k, a 55x profit; while another prediction on Trump announcing the end of military actions against Iran on April 15 resulted in a $60k loss.

On April 20th, Reuters reported that Trump had previously stated a US delegation would go to Pakistan to advance new negotiations, with expectations that the delegation would include Vice President Pence, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner. However, as of the evening of April 20th, Pence had not left the US, and the delegation had not yet set off.

Iran had maintained a refusal or at least a highly reserved attitude. The April 20th Reuters report mentioned that Iran had not formally committed to attending the Islamabad talks. Just before this, Tehran expressed strong dissatisfaction with the US's seizure of an Iranian vessel, the maintenance of sanctions, and continued pressure, leading to a clear weakening of the prospects for the second round of talks.

Yesterday, Reuters cited a senior Pakistani government official saying Pakistan was "confident" of Iran's attendance and had received positive signals from Iran, working to ensure Iran's presence at the start of the talks. The same source also stated that the talks were expected to start "tomorrow or the day after." So far, what the public has seen is still a "possible talk," not a formal start to negotiations between the two sides.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, the trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event and may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior after opening a position.

Account:
0xcdc537db3ca793e6e3464fc42c9099ede6aaafc9

Total Investment: $19.5k
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